Is it time for Andy Burnham MP?

There’s a tug of war going on over the future of Andy Burnham. On one side of the rope, plenty of Labour members would like him to return to Westminster to replace the stumbling prime minister Sir Keir Starmer and get the government back on track. Burnham’s ego – or at least his longstanding ambition to lead his party, having run for the leadership twice before – are thought to be pulling in this direction, too. Another group heaving Burnham towards Westminster are the local activists who believe that only he can prevent Reform from winning the inevitable by-election in Gorton and Denton, where the local MP has been dismissed from the party.

But there is plenty of muscle on the opposite side, too. Key party figures in the city fear that if Burnham gives up the mayoralty and heads south, Labour’s dominance of Greater Manchester could head south too. “They’re terrified,” one plugged-in local figure tells me, referring to Labour fears that Reform could sweep up a swathe of local seats at the next election — or even challenge for the mayoralty if the party can’t find a successor of Burnham’s stature. Not to mention that Starmer’s Downing Street team are desperate to prevent having an arch-rival in parliament ready to pounce.

So, with the government having another week of bad headlines, and leadership favourite Angela Rayner in trouble over her housing arrangements, who’s going to win the Burnham tug of war? And could Reform really take advantage if he’s heaved back to the House of Commons?

“I was actually having this discussion at dinner last night,” says Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator at The Times and co-author of Get In, a history of Labour’s rise to power under Starmer. “We discussed this scenario, and I think it’s underpriced.”