Dear readers — in the wise words of Rob Ford (professor of political science at the University of Manchester, and dial-a-quote for The Mill) supplementary voting effectively asks the public to “pick your favourite party,” then “pick your preferred out of the two parties you think will come on top in a very volatile political climate.”
The new/old voting system has been some might say cynically wheeled in for the upcoming mayoral by-election. But what does supplementary voting mean? And who is really likely to benefit from it? We cynically wheeled in our data-guy Josh Housden to answer those questions, and instead of just telling us the answer, he built us an interactive calculator that lets you work out for yourself just how SV is likely to change the game at next month’s election. Find it below.
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What does supplementary voting mean for Manchester?
In the ten years Greater Manchester has been holding mayoral elections, all of them have been pretty easy to predict. In the three he stood in, Andy Burnham never dropped below a 60% vote share, far outperforming Labour as a party in local and national elections. But next month, Greater Manchester’s voters will go to the polls in what will be the country’s first ever mayoral by-election, and this one is far more unpredictable, far harder to get a read on.
The Labour Party, which confirmed Manchester City Council leader Bev Craig as its candidate on Tuesday, will no longer be able to benefit from Burnham’s personal capital in the area — although the honeymoon phase the party is in as it waits for him to enter no.10 will certainly have an effect. The Greens, meanwhile, are hoping to capitalise on their success in Manchester in recent years, culminating in their recent win in Gorton and Denton. And, while on paper Reform should be the favourite given its emphatic performance in May’s local elections, the new threat of Restore to its right, as seen in Makerfield, is impacting its ability to hold onto voters.
Above: Election history of Greater Manchester since 2017.
Crucially, all of this is set against the backdrop of the return of supplemental voting, a system that mayoral elections traditionally ran under until the Conservative government changed it to first past the post in 2022. The current government has reversed this change just in time for the Greater Manchester mayoral race next month, much to the joy of electoral reformers who believe it is a fairer system, and to the chagrin of those who think it’s a ploy to stop Reform winning. Conservative peer Lord Hayward described it as a “blatant” move and harmful to democracy.
But how much will it actually affect the by-election in Greater Manchester? Our data whizz Josh Housden has built a handy interactive tool predicting how supplemental voting will affect each party’s chances. But first, let’s get the context.
What’s your preference?
Supplementary voting gives voters two choices on their ballot paper, a first preference and a second — supplementary — preference. If no candidate achieves 50% of the vote or more in the first round, the top two advance to a runoff in which their first and second round votes are combined to determine a winner.
If a voter’s second preference doesn't make it to the runoff then their vote is effectively discarded. While this allows for more “pragmatism” in electing representatives than first past the post, it can still lead to wasted votes and pressure to vote tactically in a multi-party system.
Rob Ford, professor of political science at the University of Manchester, says supplementary voting effectively asks the public to “pick your favourite party, now pick your preferred out of the two parties you think will come on top in a very volatile political climate. Some people just don’t get that.”
The Labour Party expects to benefit from this system because voters that put the Greens or Lib Dems as their first preference are, in theory at least, more likely to put Labour as their second preference. “Voters are in a cul-de-sac,” one Labour source says. “The majority of them will only ever switch to Labour.”
And, it’s in the second preferences where this race is likely to be won. In this way, there is an argument for Labour to campaign hard against the Greens, their closest rival in making it through to the second round against Reform — which based on the local election results is likely to pick up a sizable share of first round votes.
It’s in the second round that Reform will struggle because it doesn’t have many friends in the race. It’s harder to tell whether Conservative voters will back Reform as a second vote, with many (according to data from YouGov) liable to choose the Liberal Democrats as a second preference, and others liable to leave it blank. Meanwhile, in Makerfield Restore Britain voters made it clear they saw Reform as an adversary rather than an ally on the right. The only way Reform can win under a supplementary vote is to take 50% or more of the first preferences, a big ask given how fragmented Greater Manchester’s politics currently is. “The anti-reform coalition is a lot more than 30% (of the vote)” says Ford. “On first past the post, Reform can win with 30%. But if it's supplementary voting, it’s almost certainly a Labour win.”
Above: Results in Makerfield.
Since winning in Makerfield, the local Labour group has more credence than it did after the Gorton and Denton by-election to say it’s a two-horse race for the mayoralty, between Labour and Reform. The Greens, who have fielded longtime Trafford campaigner and councillor Geraldine Coggins as candidate, are more likely to come in third. What will be key is how marginal the gap between second and third is, and crucially whether she can pip Labour at the post and get into the second round — where she’ll be relying on more left-leaning, sympathetic Labour voters to have put her as their second preference.
Above: Results in Gorton and Denton.
The risk in “throwing the kitchen sink” at the campaign, as Coggins has promised to do, is letting in Reform. Though it’s worth noting that this argument was made ahead of both the Gorton and Denton and Makerfield by-elections, and in both cases Reform still lost. That could be because Reform has a by-election problem — looking back to Caerphilly, where it lost to Plaid Cymru, through to Makerfield — that problem, as Ford points out, is that the anti-Reform coalition of Green, Labour, Lib Dem and even Conservative voters is too big.
So, without further ado, here's the promised calculator. You can enter first preference vote shares on the left. On the right are sliders dictating the rate of second preferences for each party. You can choose what percentage of each party's votes will transfer to others, including an option for none. Happy calculating.
The Mill’s Mayoral By-election Predictor 3000
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