Footing the bill: Manchester restaurants brace for the budget

Dear readers — good morning one and all, particularly to those who joined after reading Joshi’s editor’s note this weekend. In the note, Joshi broke the news that we are finalists in the British Journalism Awards 2024 for our reporting on the companies making huge profits from “supported exempt housing”, a type of accommodation for the most vulnerable in society. 

And for a dose of extra good news, our London publication — The Londoner — launched today. Its opening piece is an investigation into newly-elected Labour MP Jas Athwal. Our new reporter Andrew Kersley found Athwal was the landlord of a failing children’s home where children had gone missing and been left at risk of criminal exploitation. “How is this not a bigger scandal? What is he doing still in the Labour Party?” said one person on X.

The Londoner wouldn’t exist without the support of our members, the first of whom were here in Manchester. If you haven’t joined yet, it means you’re missing out on great in-depth reporting on the issues affecting the city, such as last Thursday’s story, which looked at the new homeless camp lining St Peter’s Square. Housing mostly refugees who came to Manchester looking for a home, the tents split public opinion — as did the council’s decision to block off the square’s porticoes, where a previous encampment was based. “Well balanced as always from the Mill. Thank you,” one member said. “But does anyone have a workable solution to this?” To read that piece and join the debate in the comments, click below and become a member.

Inside the race to develop the Covid vaccine

From today’s sponsor: The global spread of a novel coronavirus in Spring 2020 sparked a worldwide scientific effort never seen before. The race to create a vaccine began at breathtaking speed, with scientists, researchers and innovators collaborating to find solutions.

Now the Science and Industry Museum’s exhibition Injecting Hope is telling the incredible story of those involved in creating the vaccines that saved millions of lives. Alongside, the exhibition tells the story of the resilience shown by communities in the North West, and the healthcare and community workers who fought to protect the vulnerable. To find out more and catch the exhibition before it closes, click here.

☁️ This week’s weather

A cloudy, gloomy week with occasional bursts of sunshine, says our local weatherman Martin Miles.

Tuesday 🌥️ Overcast with areas of mist and patchy drizzle which will make for a damp morning. A few bright spells will come through during the afternoon. Winds will be light throughout the day. 14°C.

Wednesday ☁️ Predominantly cloudy with mist around early and late in the daytime, this most extensive over the hills. Occasionally wet where cloud thickens to produce light rain. 14°C.

Thursday 🌥️ Mostly dry and cloudy, although the cloud cover will offer a few breaks which will allow for the occasional bright spell later. 15°c.

Friday 🌧️ Dull with very patchy drizzle and light rain. 14°C.

Outlook 🌤️ Colder, brighter and mostly dry at the weekend. Remaining settled next week with variable amounts of sunshine, but frosty by night.

You can find the latest forecast at Manchester Weather on Facebook — daily forecasts are published at 6.15am.

The big story: Manchester restaurants brace for the budget

Top line: The government’s long-awaited budget announcement — and Labour’s first in 14 years — is coming this Wednesday. But with a rise in National Insurance contributions and Covid support about to fall away, one industry particularly vulnerable to these changes is the hospitality industry, and in Manchester, restaurants are already dropping like flies.

Context: Since the pandemic, restaurants have benefited from tax and business rates reliefs. This has been a particular boon for smaller independents, who didn’t have the same financial backing as larger restaurant groups. 

There is widespread concern that this won’t be extended. Richard Carver, the founder of Honest Crust pizza which operates across Greater Manchester, tells the Mill: “We’ve had this protection since Covid with the business rates being discounted, which has allowed a lot of businesses to continue, but if that’s not addressed that’s going to cause all kinds of problems in the new year.”

• In 2020, business rates were cut by 75%. This was extended to March 2025. 
• If it isn’t extended, it’ll mean a four-fold increase. 

Details: Over the weekend, businesses found out that the government plans to increase employer’s national insurance contributions by two percentage points and that wages are set to increase too; with the national living wage going up to £12.10 from April 2025. This is particularly concerning to hospitality businesses who are already working with razor-thin margins. “The extra NI contribution would be one that’s going to directly impact our payroll,” says Carver.

Speaking to the Times, Simon Wood, who recently shut down his eponymous restaurant in Manchester, said the government is “getting the workers on-side by promising the earth and then the SMEs (small businesses) like myself have to deliver it and it’s just not possible.”

• Wood was paying £360,000 a year on wages when he shut down, on top of £144,000 on rent and 23,000 on rates, which would have jumped to 93,000 in March.

The budget is accompanied by other measures such as the Employment Rights Bill. It will cut down on zero hour contracts and give workers the right to a contract based on the hours they regularly work. Again Wood says these measures lack nuance when applied to hospitality businesses: “It will kill SMEs because hospitality doesn’t work like that. If I give someone 30 hours and then I have one customer that night, what do I do?”

Questions also surround VAT. Thousands have signed a petition asking for VAT on food and drink to be cut from 20% to 10%. Greater Manchester’s night time economy advisor Sacha Lord has been a long-time advocate for the change. “It’s simple,” he told industry site Restaurant in July. “Reducing VAT will undoubtedly save businesses and save jobs.”

Bottom line: The main challenge facing hospitality businesses — particularly independents — is the end of business rates relief in the new year. UK Hospitality, the main trade body, has found that 76% of businesses would see lower profits, more than a quarter would close one site and more than half would reduce employment if rates go back up. Carver says the system by which rates are calculated need an overhaul, recalling the time he paid £3,500 in rates to store a pizza oven in a mill. “£3,500 for a damp room, in a mill,” he says. “It was three times the rent.”

Your Mill briefing

🚆 On Wednesday Andy Burnham will be calling an emergency meeting for the Rail North Committee, after rail operator Northern issued a number of “do not travel” warnings over the weekend. Customers of Northern intending to travel between Manchester Victoria and Chester or Manchester Piccadilly and Stoke were advised against proceeding with their journeys due to “short notice cancellations”. Burnham called the warnings “embarrassing”, and wrote that “[t]ransport is critical to growth and right now Northern is damaging local economies across the North”.

🚌 In other transport news, Keir Starmer announced this morning that the nation-wide £2 bus fare cap will increase by 50% to £3 – however Greater Manchester, as well as London and West Yorkshire, will avoid the price hike due to having separate fare cap schemes. The proposed cap scrap had already provoked huge backlash over the weekend, with over 60,000 signing a petition against it, the Mirror reports. The new fare cap is set to be in place until the end of 2025.

⚽ The news also broke this morning that Erik ten Hag has been sacked from his role as manager of Manchester United after two and a half years at the helm. The decision to remove the manager comes after a series of poor results for United, including a 2-1 loss against West Ham over the weekend. Former Dutch striker Ruud van Nistelrooy will be temporarily taking charge of the team as head coach while a permanent replacement is recruited.

🍽️ Solo dining has increased in popularity by 14% since last year across the UK – with a significantly larger increase of 23% in Manchester. Trisha, 62, from Greater Manchester, told the Guardian that she takes herself for a solo dinner at least once a month. “I’ve never thought of it as an odd thing to do,” she says. “I think a lot of people maybe just don’t do it because they think it’s bigger than it is to go out and have a meal somewhere on your own.”

🛍️ And finally, help us out: We’re publishing a story about Afflecks this weekend and we want to hear from you, especially if you’ve ever been a stallholder at Afflecks or were close to those heavily involved in its origins. Tell us your memories and share your thoughts on how it’s changed over the years by emailing Mollie.

Home of the week 

Going through an identity crisis? This five-bed in Salford – complete with tudor-esque exterior and a wood-panelled interior like something out of Twin Peaks – could be the house for you (if you have £525,000 going spare).

Our favourite reads

Salford answered Spain’s call — Tribune Magazine

In 1937, Molly Murphy, a 42-year-old woman born in the slums of Salford to a socialist family, was in frail health, but “she nevertheless heard the call of democratic Spain, where she worked tirelessly with wounded Republican soldiers in nine hospitals over eight months”. Joe Norman, another Salfordian who had worked in the mills since he was 14, also volunteered to fight fascism in the Spanish Civil War, enduring “some of the most intense battles” and ending up in a Gestapo-controlled concentration camp. Should we erect a memorial to honour the Salfordians who dedicated their lives to defending the Spanish Republic from fascism? According to the writer Jack Youd, who is also a Labour councillor and Deputy City Mayor, “many Salfordians” believe we should.

David Olusoga: ‘My loyalty is to history — The Financial Times

David Olusoga’s intense love affair with history occasionally gets him into conflict. Recently, his partner stormed in from the bathroom when they were on a romantic holiday in Cape Verde, holding an iPad and wrongly suggesting the real reason they were there was to explore the island’s history of Portuguese concentration camps. Others have posed hostile questions suggesting he hates Britain and considers it a racist country due to his in-depth studies of British imperialism. He also says he disagrees with his students at the University of Manchester about censoring racist language in historical texts. “I disagree with my students and younger people that I don’t think we should disguise the reality of the past,” he says. “I absolutely think we should warn people about racial language because sometimes you just need to protect yourself.”

Inside the last working garment factory in Manchester — The Telegraph

Cottenham House, a four-storey brick building, is the last working garment factory in Manchester, employing around 80 craftspeople who make wool topcoats, cotton raincoats and relaxed workwear inspired by Lowry’s matchstick men and the five colours he used to paint in: flake white, ivory black, vermilion, Prussian blue and yellow ochre. The factory is “proof that while chimneys and churches may disappear, the skilled local craftspeople who made this district famous, and the provenance of the handcrafted garments they created, are just as relevant today”. 

Our to do list

Tuesday

🎭 Seventy years after its debut on Broadway in 1956, the Stockport Operatic Society has returned to the iconic musical My Fair Lady, telling the story of a flower girl and a linguistic professor determined to make her a proper lady. It’s showing at the Plaza, get tickets here.

📰 New York Times writer Taffy Brodesser-Akner is giving a talk at Waterstone’s on Deansgate about her latest novel. For the uninitiated, Taffy’s magazine journalism is well-worth a read, particularly Bradley Cooper Is Not Really Into This Profile and her long read on the phenomenon of Taylor Swift and the Eras Tour. Tickets here.

Wednesday

🎷 Sekoya, an ambient/jazz band from Scotland, are performing at Matt and Phred’s from 6pm. More here.

🎤 Independent theatre 53two is showing Frank 4 Sophie 4 Eva, a kitchen-sink drama that addresses the troubles of a married couple in their 40s. Tickets here.

Thursday

🍕 There’s a Sicilian wine tasting evening at Bar Etna in Altrincham, which begins with four flights of red, white and sparkling wine, followed by antipasti, arancini, pasta col Sugo and Sicilian cheeses with honey. £48.90 per person.

🎃 Cultplex is showing an immersive late-night screening of Alien to celebrate Halloween, book a seat here.