Good morning Millers — a century of Labour dominance ended at about 02:40am today, when MP for Manchester Central Lucy Powell stood in front of Sky's Jon Craig to answer some questions. As they spoke, you could see votes being counted for the Gorton and Denton by-election in the background, and things were looking bad for Labour.
Building up to the election, Powell — also Labour’s deputy party leader — relentlessly pushed the message that a vote for the Green party would be a waste. Only a vote for Labour’s Angeliki Stogia, who Powell personally endorsed, could prevent Matt Goodwin winning the seat for Reform UK. “After thousands and thousands of conversations, the story is clear: only Labour has the breadth & depth to beat Reform,” she posted recently on X.
But standing in front of Craig, having seen the votes that were coming in and being counted, Powell made an about-turn. “People have been grappling with what to do,” she said, “choosing between Labour and the Greens in many parts of the constituency and choosing between Labour and Reform in other parts. And, on the day, the Greens have won that argument more strongly than we have.”
About an hour later, the Greens' Hannah Spencer — a plumber from Bolton — was elected the constituency’s new MP with a 40% vote share. Reform came second, and Labour third. Nationally, this fresh expression of discontent for the government raises serious questions about other seats that could be vulnerable to what professor of political science Rob Ford is calling a “revolt on the left”.
Locally, Labour councillors in the constituency are bracing to lose their seats in May’s local election, while Manchester’s Labour group is beginning to dissect how its campaign won just a quarter of the vote in a constituency it had previously held for 100 years.
Meanwhile, academic-turned-far-right-commentator Goodwin has said that the Greens won thanks to "a dangerous Muslim sectarianism," following reports of "family voting" at polling stations – where voters direct one another's decision by conferring. Though there has been no direct link made between reports of family voting and the constituency's Muslim population, Goodwin told reporters "I think what you saw is a coalition of Islamists and woke progressives that came together to dominate the constituency."
We’ll be covering all this, and more, in our weekend read on what Spencer’s election will mean for local politics in Manchester, including more insights from last night’s count. But for now, see the full list of candidates and their share of the vote below. For context, the turnout was 36,814, or 47% of the constituency.
- Green Party - 14,980
- Reform UK - 10,578
- Labour Party - 9,364
- Conservative Party - 706
- Liberal Democrats - 653
- Monster Raving Loony Party - 159
- Advance UK - 154
- Rejoin EU Party - 98
- Libertarian Party - 47
- Social Democratic Party - 46
- Communist League - 29
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