Morning Millers — in the last few hours, Andy Burnham was elected MP for Makerfield. It marks the mayor’s return to Westminster after 10 years and sparks a chain of events that will almost certainly end in Keir Starmer’s ousting as Prime Minister and, if Burnham replaces him, will mean the first northern PM since Harold Wilson in 1976. Burnham won the seat, which swung heavily Reform in May's local elections, with a considerable majority of more than 9,000 votes and said Makerfield will never be a “stepping stone” for him, but a “touchstone.”
Unlike the Gorton and Denton by-election Burnham was blocked from standing in in February, Makerfield was no three-horse-race. It was a dead heat between Labour and Reform. But Farage’s candidate Robert Kenyon saw his campaign dissolve within the first week, after a litany of embarrassing social media posts came to light, unhelped by multiple disappointing TV interviews.
Burnham’s campaign, on the other hand, was a military operation run at an immense scale. Yesterday, over 1,000 Labour campaigners were in the Makerfield constituency encouraging residents to vote, making 120 contacts a minute, as per reports. The way campaigners and MPs rallied around Burnham’s brand has cemented him as the Labour Party’s most electable politician.
Indeed, despite fears that Restore Britain – the offshoot party led by former Reform member Rupert Lowe — would split the Reform vote and that Burnham’s majority over those parties’ combined vote would be slim, that didn’t happen either. Burnham beat Reform and Restore’s collective vote share by a decisive 6,000 votes. In fact, he got more votes than all the other candidates combined. When he arrived an hour before the count was announced, trying to catch sight of him was like trying to get to the Mona Lisa; a ten-deep crowd of reporters and photographers baying to get a shot.
“Burnham is the only electoral show in town for the Labour party,” The Time’s chief political commentator Patrick Maguire told the BBC shortly after the result. According to his allies Burnham will deliver a list of 80 MPs that support his leadership bid to Starmer, in the hope the PM will stand down without a contest. If that works, Andy Burnham will become the seventh Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 10 years, and will be expected to make good on his promise to implement the politics of Greater Manchester across the country. If it doesn’t, it means a bitter leadership contest that may not name a winner until later this year.
Where does all this leave Greater Manchester?
With Makerfield out of the way — likely to the distinct joy of local residents who have been having their doors repeatedly knocked by canvassers, journalists, cabinet ministers and Hugh Grant over the last month — our attention turns to the mayoral by-election to select Burnham’s successor.
Triggered by Burnham's election as an MP, and subsequent disqualification from the office of mayor, this by-election will be the first of its kind. It is expected to take place on 30 July. The Labour candidate hoping to continue Burnham’s legacy is expected to be Bev Craig, currently the leader of Manchester City Council and councillor for Burnage.
There were fears in the build up to this morning’s result that, had Burnham only just scraped by, it would have cost Craig’s campaign crucial momentum. Outside of Labour and political circles, Craig is a relative unknown, and has nowhere near the name recognition Burnham enjoys in Greater Manchester. But the party is likely to capitalise on Burnham’s significant majority.
Elsewhere, the Green party — expected to have more of an impact in Manchester and South Greater Manchester — have selected their candidate (more on that shortly). Restore Britain are announcing their candidate at the start of next week (stay tuned for our exclusive interview with them) and despite rumours the former marine Ant Middleton would be parachuted in (perhaps literally?) for Reform, we’ve now been reassured, as per our initial predictions, that former mayoral candidate Dan Barker is most likely to be selected.
Either way, Greater Manchester politics should brace itself for another hectic, fascinating few weeks, seeking a new mayor as its former mayor seeks to be Prime Minister.
Our city remains in the spotlight, perhaps now more than ever. To stay in the know, and receive the most knowledgeable commentary in the country, by reporters who live here, and know and understand the area, you’ll want to be signed up to The Mill.
The Makerfield by-election result in full
Population: 76,845
Turnout: 58.75% (45,510)
Andy Burnham, Labour Party - 24,927
Rob Kenyon, Reform UK - 15,696
Rebecca Shepard, Restore Britain - 3,111
Michael Winstanley, Conservative Party - 997
Sarah Wakefield, Green Party - 308
Jake Austin, Liberal Democrats - 163
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