It’s the day after Josh Simons stepped down as MP and every journalist and their mum is in Makerfield, where Andy Burnham will likely soon be standing in a by-election. In the constituency’s busiest town, Ashton-in-Makerfield, TV cameras line the roadsides. Hacks walk the morning streets with notebooks sticking out their back pockets. A reporter from the Liverpool Echo walks by, telling a camera something about how, ultimately, the majority of people in Makerfield appear to be backing Burnham. But that’s not what I’ve been hearing.
And while he’s not yet technically in the running, one thing for certain is that everyone in Ashton-in-Makerfield has seen Burnham out jogging. It’s possible that the mayor’s running route alone will land him a seat at the head of the country. “What do you think of him, whether or not you’ll vote for him?” I ask every local, shopper, or shop owner I talk to, and more than once I get the response: “I don’t know him, do I!” and then moments later, “but I’ve seen him out jogging.” Three or four people inform me that they know where he lives, but that they won’t be telling. One woman at a local cafe tells me that her partner’s son used to play out with his son. Still, she’ll be voting Reform.
And she’s far from the only one. Burnham’s much-touted likeability is alive in Ashton (virtually everyone I talk to speaks fondly of his tenure as mayor, and believes that Burnham sincerely cares about the area), but you don’t need me to tell you that Labour’s likeability is in the bin. While the parliamentary seat has been Labour for the entire 43 years it’s existed, last week’s local election saw every contested ward in the constituency turning Reform UK turquoise, putting Labour, so to speak, in the red. To put it simply, when I ask the woman at the cafe whether she’ll vote for Burnham, she doesn’t have to say ‘no’, she just laughs and says: “He’s Labour, in’t he?”
Here’s another example: Natalie, a local florist, a Labour voter all her life. She was brought up Labour by her family. When I ask her if she thinks Burnham cares about Makerfield, she doesn’t hesitate for a moment to say: “I do, yeah. He was brought up in Leigh. I think whatever he sets his mind to, he’ll do.” Still, she’ll be voting Reform.
Why? The reasons seem to veer more ‘push’ from Labour than ‘pull’ from Reform, and include all the classic sentiments: that “Labour’s finished,” that Starmer is all manner of expletives, that people have “had enough”.
But of course, campaigning hasn’t started yet; candidates haven’t even been selected. It’s unlikely that Reform will be choosing another suited Southerner like they did in Gorton and Denton, and rumours have already abounded that their very own plumber will be standing: Robert Kenyon, who ran and lost in the last general election, but who was elected to Wigan Council last week, and who served in the British Army and spent six years working in the NHS (to borrow facts from election-candidate-research-expert Michael Crick). A fearsome opponent, then. Meanwhile my eager attempts at working out who the Greens will be sending in to “properly contest” Makerfield has garnered only this text from an insider: “I don't yet know of any runners and riders, it has only been 5 mins”.
What’s for sure is that all parties hoping to stand a chance should follow in Labour’s (probable) footsteps and pick, as multiple Ashton residents described Burnham to me, “a local lad”. Speaking to residents you get the sense that, in Makerfield, politicians are valued over parties. The same woman who rolled her eyes at the idea of voting Labour in the by-election told me that the ward’s Labour councillor Danny Fletcher is “one of [her] good friends.” A quick glance at the local Facebook group shows him to be well-respected across party lines. You almost wonder if he’d stand a better chance than Burnham. What’s for sure is that it’s an area of visible politicians who are known to the community. For Reform, another Goodwin-type will spell another failure.
It’s not all bad for Burnham, to be clear. When I go door-knocking in the more suburban outskirts of the town, I’m greeted by Bill and his wife Chris, both 75, both ex-teachers, both about as Labour as you can get. Harbouring possibly one of the rarest political opinions in Britain, Bill is a huge supporter of Starmer’s and wishes he’d remain in office — however, in lieu of that happening, he’s certain that Burnham will make a good MP, and a good PM to boot. “There’s obviously some dissenting voices, e.g. Reform, but he’s well-liked generally,” Bill tells me. “He only lives up the road. He’s a local lad. He knows all the issues.” Both Bill and Chris know where Burnham lives and have seen him jogging.
Bill knows his neighbour to the left is also Labour, and reckons others on the street are too — a reasonably affluent street: big driveways with big cars on them, and Bill tells me that the residents skew older. Other areas in the constituency, such as Stubshaw Cross, however, are Labour no-go zones. Chris reminds him that he went flyering for Labour there once, “during UKIP time”. Bill nods. “I was quite worried about my safety.”
But while Bill’s Labour-neighbour isn’t in, his neighbour across the road is, and he tells a different story. John Collier (named after his grandad, not the window-to-watch) is 41, from Ashton, and he answers the door with his puppy Nova (named after Champagne Supernova). John voted for the first time ever at the recent local elections, and he voted Reform. “I just think something needs to give,” he says — adding that he has three young daughters, and therefore doesn’t like “unidentified military-aged males walking around his town,” regardless, he clarifies, of what race they are. “White people shouldn’t be walking around undocumented either.”
But there’s more than that. Until recently, John was working 108-hour weeks as a carer at SEN schools. Now he’s taken a job as an Evri delivery driver so that he can homeschool two of his daughters. “Where’s my help?” he asks. “Labour used to be for the people and it's not anymore.”
Does he think Burnham’s got a chance in the by-election? “Labour are getting battered,” he replies. But Burnham, specifically, as an individual, is he popular in Makerfield? “Yeah, I believe so,” he says.
In this sense, perhaps Burnham will just have to hold out hope that the politician does matter more than the party in Makerfield, and that the other candidates aren’t as avid joggers. Just while I was writing this article he was spotted by Sky News in his vintage Everton top, running down a grass-lined A-road.
It’s a copy editor's dream. Is Burnham even in the running? Will he run rings around Reform? Or is his luck running out? In Makerfield, where things are looking bad for Labour, and Reform are stronger than ever, will voters tell Burnham: Jog on?
He’s running 🏃♂️ pic.twitter.com/n4mODC7g6p
— Josh Gafson (@JoshGafson1) May 15, 2026
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