Dear Millers — it’s finally on. Years of speculation about Andy Burnham finding a seat to make his way back to Westminster, and he now has one: Makerfield, where the sitting Labour MP Josh Simons announced he would step down just two years after being elected, to trigger a by-election.
It’s a massive gamble for Burnham, but one commensurate with the prize. If he wins, he will likely be the favourite to win a Labour leadership race and become prime minister. But to get there, several hurdles stand in his way, including being approved to stand by Labour’s National Executive Committee (it’s thought Starmer won’t have the power to block him this time), being chosen as the candidate (should be straightforward) and then, by far the biggest one, winning the seat against what is likely to be stiff opposition from Reform, who just swept every ward in Makerfield in last week’s local elections (remember the Reform leader in Wigan talking about a ‘bloodbath’?).
Will Burnham win in Makerfield? He should do... Polls show he is much more popular than Starmer or the Labour Party brand, and he’s lived in that neck of the woods for years so local people know him well. He must have calculated that he’s more likely to win in a suburban seat where he’s taking on Reform rather than a Manchester seat like Rusholme or Withington (as the rumours suggested earlier this week), where he would have been battling the Greens and talking a lot about Gaza.
Ophira is wandering around Makerfield (which takes in Ashton-in-Makerfield, Platt Bridge and Hindley plus lots of Wigan suburbs like Winstanley and Hawkley) today to chat to voters. It will be interesting to see how Burnham answers questions about the EU in his campaign (Makerfield voted 65% to Leave and Burnham is a rejoiner), and how much of the anger about the Clean Air Zone fiasco has subsided.
We will be covering the by-election with gusto until polling day, but for today’s edition, we’re looking forward to a Burnham-less future in Greater Manchester. Are we going to get a Reform mayor in his place? Will Labour turn to Gary Neville? And how might Burnham’s departure shape the very survival of the Greater Manchester project? Jack has been speaking to his sources to answer those questions and a few more.
Before we get to that: Yesterday’s story was a huge hit with readers. Lucy visited flat 3203 in Beetham Tower, whose owner had been hearing reports of his tenants' strange activity. At first, he thought it was just student parties, but then the delivery trucks started arriving, and a squad of men in the stairwell carrying boxes of supplies. By the time the landlord arrived at the door, he was being watched through the peephole from the other side, and then he walked in: “never in a million years, did I expect to see what I saw.”
Lucy McLaughlin
Hello! Jack Dulhanty here. We are on the precipice of what is likely this century's most consequential election: and it's going to be in Greater Manchester. Andy Burnham's election in Makerfield could make or break the Labour party, and dictate the future of the country's politics. The stakes couldn't be higher
Times like this require in-depth insight and analysis, and that can only be delivered by a quality local newspaper that is on-the-ground, digging behind the headlines and press statements. We can only do that with the support of our paying subscribers, and that's why you should become a member today.
Not only will you will be supporting our upcoming reporting on the Makerfield by-election and helping voters there make better decisions, you will also get full access to today's piece breaking down what Greater Manchester's political landscape will look like without Burnham as mayor, and yesterday's story about the mystery inside flat 3203.
Your briefing
👮♀️ A revamped custody suite at Longsight Police Station will become the first in England to use airport-style body scanners aimed at reducing the need for strip searches. The new facility follows recommendations from Dame Vera Baird’s 2024 inquiry into how GMP handled detainees — particularly women and girls. Police say the upgraded site will include 44 additional cells, dedicated areas for young and neurodivergent detainees, CCTV and phone lines in every cell and on-site virtual court technology to speed up hearings. Chief Constable Sir Stephen Watson told the BBC the development was a “major milestone” in the force’s custody reforms.
🥩 Staff at Hartshead Meats, the abattoir in Mossley at the centre of an investigation by vegan activist Joey Carbstrong, have had the paperwork that allows them to work on the site removed. Carbstrong posted an investigation into the company that went viral on social media, showing alleged animal slaughter malpractice. It included footage showing cows being killed, claiming they hadn't been stunned beforehand. Since those videos emerged, protests have been staged outside the site, and now The Food Standards Agency is taking “immediate enforcement action” after launching a full investigation. The Tameside Correspondent reports that Hartshead Meats insists the footage is selectively edited and misleading, saying it operates under constant FSA supervision.
🚋 And last thing: Metrolink services between Victoria and Rochdale — as well as in the city centre — will be getting an upgrade over the next few weeks, as part of the latest phase of a £150m revamp project. It will mean disruptions to services later in the month. More info here.
Burnham out, Reform in? We dig into what happens next
Yesterday’s news that Andy Burnham is making his long-awaited tilt at Downing Street via the newly vacant seat of Makerfield raises all sorts of questions, including the critical one of who will succeed him as mayor. We’ve been on the phone to experts and local leaders to give you the inside track.
When will Burnham have to quit as mayor?
Now that Makerfield is open, Burnham has requested permission from Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC) to stand in the by-election for the seat. This is the stage at which he was prevented from standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election in February, but this morning’s papers suggest the NEC is unlikely to do that a second time.
So how would that affect his role as mayor? You can’t be an MP and mayor of Greater Manchester at the same time, because of the authority Burnham has over policing, but he wouldn’t need to immediately resign, local government lawyer and partner at Weightmans LLP Simon Goacher tells me.
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