Dear readers — two by-elections took place last night across Greater Manchester, in Failsworth West in Oldham, and Hindley Green in Wigan. The Mill didn’t report on them.
That’s because there’s a set of journalists in Manchester who can be relied upon to report exactly these matters: Local Democracy Reporters (LDRs). These reporters are funded by the BBC – via the licence fee – “to provide impartial coverage of the regular business and workings of local authorities in the UK, and other relevant democratic institutions”. Their articles are commissioned and proofed by a local ‘contractor’ (in Manchester’s case the Manchester Evening News), but provided to all relevant local news outlets, including The Mill, for free.
But today, the MEN published an LDR piece on the Wigan and Oldham by-elections behind a paywall. We’ve explained our issue with this — and admittedly, they’ve at least stopped referring to LDR-penned articles as “premium content available exclusively for [their] subscribers”. However, this time they’ve also not proofed it, stating incorrectly that in May’s local elections Reform claimed all 25 available council seats in Wigan.
So, as we promised back in January of this year, here is a copy of the article, corrected and for free.
By Declan Carey, Local Democracy Reporter
If a week is considered a long time in politics, then six months is an eternity.
In May 2026 Labour was hammered in the local elections across Greater Manchester. The party lost swathes of seats to Reform UK and the Greens in a bruising set of results. It was particularly bad in Wigan, where Reform UK stormed to a massive win and gained 24 out 25 seats up for grabs.
But a lot has happened since then. Of course the biggest change is Andy Burnham swapping the Greater Manchester mayoralty for the Makerfield seat and role of prime minister.
Last night’s council by-elections in his Wigan constituency and Oldham were seen by some as litmus tests for Labour’s future in Greater Manchester.
But looking more closely at the results, the breakdown suggests the story of last night was less a Burnham bounce and more a Reform slump, or at least a struggle to get their supporters out on the night.
On a bitterly cold Thursday where temperatures plummeted below freezing in Hindley Green, voters elected a former Labour councillor in the Wigan council ward.
Labour’s John Vickers won the seat following the death of long-serving independent Bob Brierley with 1,201 votes, ahead of Reform’s Bonnie Clarke in second with 887.
Vickers was also Labour’s candidate in May when he got a very similar number of votes with 1,172 ballots, in a race in which he was roundly beaten by a Reform candidate with 1,878.
So while Labour gained a similar number of votes on Thursday compared to May, the stark difference was Reform UK was 1,000 votes down.
Vickers said Burnham’s rise to prime minister had a part to play in the win. He said: “People were disillusioned in May and what happened on June 18 [Andy Burnham becoming an MP] certainly put a lot of faith back in people who had perhaps decided that the Labour Party was not going in the right direction.”
Wigan Reform leader Paul Watson also spoke about the “Burnham bounce” in Hindley Green — but suggested the wave of support for Labour might not last long.
He added: “Momentum maybe seems to be with Labour now, after the Burnham bounce, but come May it will be a totally different perspective.”
The battle for Failsworth West in Oldham was no less significant.
On the border with Manchester, the council ward is split by the Rochdale Canal and falls into the Manchester Central constituency under Lucy Powell MP.
Labour had high hopes of success, after winning the ward in the Greater Manchester mayor by-election in July where Bev Craig was elected as Burnham’s successor.
But in the end the council by-election on Thursday was won by Reform UK by 42 votes. The new Reform councillor for Failsworth West, Chris Baddeley, won 642 votes to Labour’s 600.
It was suggested that the freezing cold weather may have affected turnout, which stood at 19.7%.
Baddeley was happy with the victory. He added: “This is where the hard work starts.”
But again, a look at the vote in May tells the story of what really happened — the Reform UK vote numbers fell.
Six months ago in the local elections, Reform UK picked up 1,878 votes in Failsworth West when Mark Ruthven was elected with 56% of the ballots cast, to Labour’s 584.
Oldham Labour put Thursday’s result down to the Andy Burnham factor as well as the record of its candidate, Pete Davis.
Oldham Labour’s leader Arooj Shah said the result was still a success for her party and there was “a complete change of atmosphere” on the doorstep.
Labour sources in Greater Manchester were generally pleased with the results.
The Burnage by-election in Manchester in September for Bev Craig’s former council seat was also seen as another major test for Labour, but that time the Greens were the main opponent rather than Reform. Labour won the result by 328 votes in what was also put down to the “Burnham bounce”.
But by-elections elsewhere in the country last night saw Reform beat Labour to win seats in North East Lincolnshire and the Staffordshire Moorlands. It begs the obvious question whether the “Burnham bounce” is confined to Greater Manchester, where the prime minister was widely popular during his time as mayor.
There’s another big test in the Harpurhey by-election in Manchester on 26 November, which is one of the city’s most deprived areas.
One Labour source said the party is “on the road to recovery” from where it was in May. Asked whether they’re in a good place for the 2027 local elections, they said: “We’ll know the answer to that in two weeks’ time.”
Councillor Sian Astley, the leader of Reform UK in Manchester, said of her party’s future prospects in the region: “I think it does put us in a good place for May. I think people in Wigan still hold a little bit of faith in Mr Burnham which we in Reform feel is misplaced.”
Asked about the turnout and fall in Reform votes, she added: “I think people are sick to death of elections.”
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