Skip to content

We’ve got the data on… second choice votes

Illo: Jake Greenhalgh.

The next mayor will be decided by voters’ second choices. Here’s who they’re liable to pick

Dear readers — with Andy Burnham on track to be prime minister, there’s just under a fortnight until we choose who fills his mayoral shoes. But thanks to the return of supplementary voting, this by-election likely won’t be decided by voters’ first choices. Instead, the biggest question will be who they're willing to settle for if their favourite candidate falls short.

To answer that question, we’ve once again wheeled out Mill Data Guy Josh Housden, who’s becoming something of a columnist for us. You might remember him from when he brought us the data on Makerfield, and then when he invented the supplementary voting predictor-5000. Now he’s back, and he’s identified the strongest Green, Conservative and Reform wards in Greater Manchester based on May’s local election results, and broken down the political geography of those areas using census data. Once he gave us that, we fanned out across those wards to put his findings to the test, quizzing Greater Manchester residents on not just who they want to be our next mayor, but who they’re prepared to back if their top choice doesn’t win.


Interested in sponsoring The Mill? Get in touch.


This article is for paying members only

Join The Mill for full access to this story, plus four great features delivered to your inbox every week — and the knowledge that you're supporting a new model of local news that puts quality and honesty first.

From £8.95/month · cancel anytime

Get full access

Already have an account? Sign In


Latest